By Jim Wasserman
For years in the business of selling houses, the weekend after the Super Bowl was the time when people started house hunting.Industry trackers say that tradition went out the window during the 2001-05 housing boom. People had to shop vigorously all winter to stay ahead of rising prices.
That's no problem now. Yet if this year is like the last two, the Super Bowl is now just the last game of the season, not the opening shot of the home- selling year.
Indeed, there's a chance the peak buying activity of 2008 may have already happened.
In both 2006 and 2007, escrow closings – where all the paperwork is done and buyers get the keys – peaked in March, according to La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems. That means the homes were likely sold sometime in January or early February.
A March peak isn't something the industry likes or wants to see again this year. In 2006, a March peak showed there wouldn't be a big spring rebound and proved the downturn was real. In 2007, the subprime crisis arrived in March and pushed down sales for the rest of the year.
So far this year, builders and real estate agents say they're seeing the usual rise in sales compared with December. New-home sales are "slightly better than they were in December," said Jane Enger, analyst with the Danville-based Ryness Group, which counts sales weekly in the area.
Chicago-based Kimball Hill Homes, too, saw an "uptick" in January, said Derek Baker, Sacramento division president.
Tina Wilks, who owns the midtown Sacramento office of Prudential California Realty, said investors, more than first-time buyers, are driving activity she's seen. Many are picking off houses repossessed by banks.
"Under $200,000 is where it's come together quickly," she said.
Builders, however, still have inventory to sell. Last weekend, Miami-based Lennar Corp. found a successful way to sell eight houses in the region. Its offer of 30-year fixed-rate loans at 4.875 percent and no closing costs triggered five sales in Rancho Cordova, two in Gridley and one in Roseville, said Laura Stickelman, vice president for sales in the builder's Sacramento division.
Nationally, Lennar sold 223 houses with the promotion last weekend, she said. The deals applied to what the industry calls "standing inventory," finished houses without buyers.
With 590 sales last year, Lennar ranked second among builders in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties. First with 665 sales was Dallas-based Centex Homes, according to the Gregory Group in Folsom.
Coldwell Banker growing
In every big economic shake-out one rule holds true: The big always get bigger.
That's what is happening at Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, which claims to be the biggest real estate brokerage in Northern California. The com- pany's Tahoe-Sacramento division has added more than 200 real estate agents in the past year as smaller brokerages flame out under the stress of a downturn. The brokerage has added 670 agents across all of Northern California.
"They come to us, and our managers are calling and recruiting from other firms, especially top producing agents," said Bob Bronswick, Tahoe-Sacramento division president.
The moves give agents a bigger company's marketing prowess and bring the company a larger share of commissions.
Seeking help that works
The foreclosures keep piling up across the Sacramento region, which means workout solutions between borrowers and lenders often aren't working.
One that did, though, was between Minneapolis-based GMAC Mortgage and Sacramento resident Chiara Teruel. She had a subprime loan that promised to bring trouble when it reset. She said this week that two months of back-and-forth with GMAC brought her a fixed-rate loan that she can afford.
"I believe it really helped that I was current in all my payments," Teruel said.
GMAC is one of the firms that signed onto Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's voluntary agreement last November to work harder with borrowers.
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